Premier League title race probabilities 2026/27
Premier League title race probabilities for the 2026/27 season: title chance, UCL chance, relegation risk, and expected points.
| Club | Title % | UCL % | Relegation % | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 53.8% | 96.4% | 0.0% | 73.5 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 16.0% | 77.4% | 0.0% | 66.0 |
| Manchester City | 14.0% | 73.8% | 0.0% | 66.0 |
| Liverpool | 5.4% | 48.4% | 0.6% | 60.0 |
| AFC Bournemouth | 2.4% | 39.4% | 1.2% | 59.0 |
| Aston Villa | 1.6% | 24.8% | 2.2% | 56.0 |
| Brentford | 0.8% | 24.2% | 3.0% | 55.0 |
| Chelsea | 2.0% | 27.2% | 3.0% | 55.0 |
| Everton | 0.8% | 22.4% | 3.6% | 55.0 |
| Leeds United | 2.4% | 24.8% | 2.8% | 55.0 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 0.2% | 11.6% | 9.0% | 51.0 |
| Newcastle United | 0.4% | 8.4% | 11.4% | 51.0 |
| Nottingham Forest | 0.0% | 5.6% | 20.8% | 48.0 |
| Manchester United | 0.2% | 5.8% | 19.0% | 48.0 |
| Fulham | 0.0% | 4.4% | 19.4% | 47.0 |
| Ipswich Town | 0.0% | 1.8% | 33.0% | 44.0 |
| Coventry City | 0.0% | 0.4% | 38.6% | 43.0 |
| Sunderland | 0.0% | 0.6% | 41.4% | 42.0 |
| Hull City | 0.0% | 1.4% | 43.2% | 41.0 |
| Crystal Palace | 0.0% | 1.2% | 48.2% | 41.0 |
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