Ligue 1 title race probabilities 2026/27
Ligue 1 title race probabilities for the 2026/27 season: title chance, UCL chance, relegation risk, and expected points.
| Club | Title % | UCL % | Relegation % | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain | 69.6% | 96.0% | 0.0% | 68.0 |
| Lille | 8.2% | 56.8% | 0.2% | 57.0 |
| Paris FC | 6.2% | 50.6% | 0.0% | 56.0 |
| Olympique de Marseille | 4.4% | 40.4% | 0.0% | 54.0 |
| Lyon | 3.2% | 31.8% | 2.0% | 53.0 |
| AS Monaco | 3.8% | 29.0% | 1.4% | 52.0 |
| Rennes | 1.2% | 23.6% | 1.2% | 51.0 |
| Stade Brestois | 0.8% | 15.2% | 3.0% | 49.0 |
| Lens | 0.6% | 14.2% | 4.2% | 48.0 |
| Lorient | 0.8% | 13.6% | 2.8% | 48.0 |
| Toulouse | 0.4% | 9.4% | 6.6% | 47.0 |
| OGC Nice | 0.6% | 10.0% | 7.4% | 46.0 |
| Strasbourg | 0.0% | 5.0% | 10.2% | 45.0 |
| Auxerre | 0.2% | 1.8% | 29.0% | 40.0 |
| Le Mans | 0.0% | 0.4% | 46.0% | 36.0 |
| Troyes | 0.0% | 0.6% | 47.8% | 36.0 |
| Angers | 0.0% | 0.0% | 53.4% | 35.0 |
| Le Havre | 0.0% | 0.0% | 85.0% | 29.0 |
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