Primeira Liga title race probabilities 2026/27
Primeira Liga title race probabilities for the 2026/27 season: title chance, UCL chance, relegation risk, and expected points.
| Club | Title % | UCL % | Relegation % | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto | 55.8% | 96.0% | 0.0% | 73.0 |
| Benfica | 32.8% | 94.0% | 0.0% | 70.0 |
| Sporting CP | 10.0% | 71.6% | 0.0% | 64.0 |
| Santa Clara | 0.2% | 10.2% | 0.0% | 53.0 |
| FC Arouca | 0.0% | 7.6% | 0.2% | 52.0 |
| Sporting Braga | 0.8% | 8.0% | 0.4% | 52.0 |
| Academico Viseu | 0.4% | 6.0% | 0.4% | 51.0 |
| Gil Vicente | 0.0% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 49.0 |
| Famalicão | 0.0% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 47.0 |
| Moreirense | 0.0% | 0.8% | 4.8% | 43.0 |
| Vitória Guimarães | 0.0% | 0.4% | 14.2% | 41.0 |
| Alverca | 0.0% | 0.4% | 10.4% | 41.0 |
| Estrela Amadora | 0.0% | 0.0% | 24.4% | 38.0 |
| Nacional | 0.0% | 0.0% | 29.6% | 37.0 |
| Marítimo | 0.0% | 0.0% | 44.8% | 34.0 |
| Casa Pia AC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 48.6% | 34.0 |
| Rio Ave | 0.0% | 0.0% | 49.2% | 34.0 |
| Estoril | 0.0% | 0.0% | 71.2% | 31.0 |
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