La Liga title race probabilities 2026/27
La Liga title race probabilities for the 2026/27 season: title chance, UCL chance, relegation risk, and expected points.
| Club | Title % | UCL % | Relegation % | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | 70.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 84.0 |
| Real Madrid | 24.2% | 99.4% | 0.0% | 79.0 |
| Atlético Madrid | 4.2% | 92.8% | 0.0% | 72.0 |
| Real Betis | 1.6% | 87.4% | 0.0% | 67.0 |
| Real Sociedad | 0.0% | 44.0% | 0.2% | 59.5 |
| Athletic Club | 0.0% | 21.2% | 0.8% | 54.0 |
| Villarreal | 0.0% | 20.0% | 1.0% | 54.0 |
| Sevilla | 0.0% | 10.2% | 3.6% | 52.0 |
| Rayo Vallecano | 0.0% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 50.0 |
| Celta Vigo | 0.0% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 48.0 |
| Deportivo Alavés | 0.0% | 3.4% | 10.2% | 47.0 |
| Getafe | 0.0% | 1.2% | 14.4% | 45.0 |
| Espanyol | 0.0% | 2.0% | 22.4% | 44.0 |
| Levante UD | 0.0% | 0.8% | 19.4% | 44.0 |
| Racing Santander | 0.0% | 2.0% | 21.0% | 44.0 |
| RC Deportivo La Coruña | 0.0% | 0.2% | 22.4% | 43.0 |
| Osasuna | 0.0% | 0.8% | 23.4% | 43.0 |
| Elche | 0.0% | 0.6% | 30.4% | 42.0 |
| Valencia | 0.0% | 1.0% | 32.6% | 42.0 |
| Málaga | 0.0% | 0.0% | 86.8% | 31.0 |
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